NEW DELHI: So the final tally of the assembly elections to the four states of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam and the Union Territory Puducherry is out and clear, and although Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have thought it would be different, but contrary to their expectations, the electorate in these states its seems believed otherwise. 

Consequently, the results have hit Prime Minister Modi and the India his party perceived to be, however the India that voted applied its own mind based on what they perceived of the political parties. So to sum it up, in the 'Perfect' round up these are the broader contours of the final outcome.  

Tamil Nadu

And clearly, the winner in Tamil Nadu is the President of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin. He is conspicuously named after Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin, a communist revolutionary and the ruler of the Soviet Union from 1927 until 1953, who had died around the time of his birth. 

There is an interesting incident about Stalin, that he was denied admission in the famous Presentation Convent in Chennai, the school attended by late chief minister J. Jayalalithaa because he bore a Communist name.

The son of the (DMK) patriarch and late former Chief Minister of the state M. Karunanidhi, Stalin was the opposition leader in the outgoing state Assembly. 

Contrary to predictions by some poll pundits, Stalin steered his party to win 133 seats in the elected strength of the assembly of 234 with a vote share of 37.70 per cent. Needless to say, Stalin will be elected as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu within the next few days. 

The outgoing party All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led by the sitting chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami was able to win 66 seats with a vote share of 33.29 per cent. The party founded by famous film actor turned politician Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran popularly known as M. G. R, as a breakaway faction from the Karunanidhi led DMK in 1972 and later fostered by his protegee the late J. Jayalalithaa fought in alliance with BJP which was able to open its account with 4 wins in the state.

DMK's alliance partner Indian National Congress led by Rahul Gandhi which has been routed in the 5 assembly polls won 18 seats. 

West Bengal 

The big conqueror, dare we say David in the battle vs Goliath is the sitting Chief Minister and maverick politician Mamata Banerjee of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) who led her party to score a huge 3rd consecutive victory winning contradicting most of the exit polls. 

Way far more than what the most generous experts had predicted for her, in the final count TMC won 213 seats with a vote share of 47.94 per cent out of the out of 292 constituencies that went to the polls in a high-octane and truly fierce electoral contest. A rather diminutive, 66 years old Mamata in her signature white cotton sari and Hawai chappal was pitted against the tallest leaders of BJP led by Prime Minister Modi himself and Union home minister Amit Shah.

Modi held close to two dozen rallies in West Bengal, Amit Shah held over 75 rallies, roadshows and town halls in 20 days, besides the party deployed dozens of Union ministers, Member of Parliaments, Chief Ministers and cabinet ministers of BJP-ruled states to campaign in Bengal. Around 20 senior BJP leaders were stationed in West Bengal for over three months in the run-up to the elections.

Besides the strength of the Goliath another key factor that was playing in their favour was the massive ground support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has consistently built its presence across the state.

TMC was moving at their pre-determined pace, while for most of the second half of the campaigning Mamata was wheelchair-bound due to an injury to her leg, however she did not let that dampen her spirits and addressed rallies mostly with not much fanfare on the stage. She did however made this a 'local Vs outsiders' campaign as she harped on being the Bengal’s daughter fighting the threat of outsiders, even going to the extent of calling the Modi-Shah duo as the 'Gujarati goons'

Undoubtedly Mamta will be sworn in as the Chief Minister shortly and continues to enjoy the distinction of being the only woman Chief Minister in India, as of now, and the only woman politician in independent India who formed a political formation without a male mentor, she smashes patriarchy in Indian politics.

For all its efforts BJP won 77 seats with a vote share of 38.13 per cent, still, a commendable win considering that they had only 3 MLAs in the outgoing assembly. 

Interestingly Indian National Congress and its alliance partner the Left Front including the Communist Party of India (Marxist) were totally routed in the assembly polls scoring big nil, without evening opening an account. 

Kerala 

Unlike West Bengal where they drew a blank, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) leader and the incumbent Chief Minister since 2016, Pinarayi Vijayan led his Left and Democratic Front (LDF) to an impressive second consecutive victory.

It's clearly a distinction in the heavily polarised polity in the state with revolving door politics where no party or front has been able to retain power in the next elections, Vijayan has been able to retain power in an impressive manner. 

The CPI-M on its own has won 62 seats in the 140 assembly seats, while its other partner of LDF the Communist Party of India (CPI) the oldest communist political party in India, has won 17 seats taking the alliance total to 99 seats. 

The biggest loser in Kerala is again, clearly the Indian National Congress especially Rahul Gandhi who is a Member of Parliament from Wayanad which could win only 21 seats. The United Democratic Front (Kerala) the alliance of 9 parties led by Congress including the Indian Union Muslim League now has a strength of 41 seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

Interestingly despite a noisy campaign, the BJP was totally routed in Kerala and while it claimed of winning at least 35 seats in the state it scored nil, even losing its only seat, Nemom, which it held earlier. BJP had projected 'Metroman' E Sreedharan as its Chief Ministerial candidate who lost along with the party's State chief K Surendran.

Ahead of the Kerala Assembly elections, Sreedharan has raised the issue of 'Love Jihad' in Kerala saying that he had seen Hindu and Christian girls being "tricked" into marriage.

Assam 

If there was one state which had some reason to cheer for the BJP among the four states it was Assam where the sitting Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal led his party's NDA alliance to retain power winning 60 seats out of the 126 Constituencies that went to polls with a vote share of 33.21 per cent.

Along with its NDA alliance, Asom Gana Parishad winning 9 seats with a vote share of 8 per cent and the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) bagging 6 seats BJP is in a comfortable majority however still the party is in a dilemma. And that is, who will be made the next chief minister of Assam? 

Although not in the open, within the state there is a palpable tension of choice between Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma who has risen in prominence in state BJP since he joined in 2014. Before joining BJP, Sarma was an MLA from Indian National Congress since 2001.

While Sonowal successfully faced the anti-incumbency, Sarma is the most talked-about man in Assam BJP for his leadership as the finance minister of the state and effective handling of COVID-19 situation. 

Considering the dilemma the party has carefully avoided naming their CM candidate, so as of now Assam will have to wait to see who will be its next chief minister. Needless to say, the BJP leadership is known to always have a B plan in such situations which it keeps to itself and may have an attractive proposition to both the aspiring candidates. So it will be interesting to be seen who becomes gets the CM chair or will there be post-poll surprise. You never know.

Just like Kerala the biggest loser in Assam is again the Indian National Congress and its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) alliance. Congress won 29 seats with a 29.70 per cent vote share. 

Although Congress looked confident of a big win for its alliance Mahajyot Grand Alliance consisting of over 9 parties including All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by Badruddin Ajmal which won 16 seats with a 9.29 per cent vote share. Several poll experts had said that the alliance with AIUDF would not go well with Congress voters since for long the late Congress stalwart, late Tarun Gogoi who served as the CM of Assam for a record three consecutive terms had never wanted to forge an alliance with Ajmal often calling him a communal politician. 

Puducherry

Former French colony now a Union Territory (UT), the Puducherry Legislative Assembly is a mixed bag. In the final count, the All India N.R. Congress has emerged as the largest party winning 10 seats with a vote share of 26 per cent out of the 30 seats of Puducherry. This party was formed by the former Chief Minister of Puducherry, N Rangaswamy in 2011 as a breakaway from the Indian National Congress, the only person to become Chief Minister of Puducherry by starting a new party on his own.

All India N.R. Congress is currently part of the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP which won 6 seats with a vote share of 13.66 per cent.

The Congress Party which won only 2 seats (15.7 per cent vote share) is again the biggest loser in this UT after its government led by V. Narayanasamy had collapsed after a prolonged tussle with Lieutenant Governor Kiran Bedi Lieutenant Governor, and thanks to defections weeks ahead of the scheduled Assembly polls.

The other UPA partner the DMK secure more seat than Congress winning 6 seats with an 18.51 per cent vote share. 

So the question is who will be elected as Chief Minister of Puducherry? Although the BJP led alliance had not announced their CM candidate before the poll, the answer simply straight, undoubtedly N Rangaswamy who led the NDA to power will be the CM. And if that happens, it will be Rangasamy’s fourth tenure as Chief Minister, and the first heading an NDA coalition government.

Sketches: M K Stalin, Mamta Banerjee by Gokula Varadharajan. Pinarayi Vijayan by Shyam