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Retail inflation spikes and industrial growth slows to a 7 month low

NEW DELHI: Two separate data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) today showed that the retail inflation which is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), inched up marginally to 4.48 per cent in October. Separately, the country’s factory output, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), witnessed a year-on-year growth of 3.1 per cent in September. The retail inflation in September was at 4.35 per cent. 

This is the fourth successive month that the CPI data has come below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper margin of 6 per cent. The government has asked the central bank to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for a five-year period ending March 2026. 

The CPI data is mainly factored in by the RBI while making its Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy. Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank had kept the Repo Rate unchanged for the eighth time in a row at 4 per cent, slashed the inflation target for 2021-22 to 5.3 per cent and indicated the unwinding of the accommodative policy as the economy showed signs of emerging from the impact of COVID-19. 

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) or the inflation in the food basket inched higher during October to 0.85 per cent from 0.68 per cent in September, the data revealed. 

The marginal hike in the food basket was mainly due to a sharp rise in prices of oils and fats which surged by 33.50 per cent in October. Apart from this, the meat and fish prices segment saw a rise of 7.12 per cent, while that of pulses and products gained by 5.42 per cent and milk and milk products rose by 3.19 per cent. Non-alcoholic beverages climbed by 11.40 per cent. On the other hand, the vegetable segment slipped by (-)19.43 per cent and egg prices declined by (-)1.38 per cent. 

Apart from food and beverages, the fuel and light segment rose by 14.35 per cent in October, while clothing and footwear gained 7.53 per cent and the housing segment inched up by 3.54 per cent. 

In separate data released by MoSPI, the country’s factory output witnessed a growth of 3.1 per cent to 127.9 during September. The IIP had risen by 1 per cent to 124.1 in September 2020, the data showed. 

So far in 2021-22 (April-September), the industrial sector has seen a rise of 23.5 per cent, compared to a (-)20.8 per cent contraction in the corresponding period a year ago, the data showed. 

The growth in IIP during September was led by the mining sector, followed by the manufacturing and electricity sectors. The mining sector saw growth of 8.6 per cent to 95.1 in September, while the manufacturing sector saw a rise of 2.7 per cent to 129.9. The electricity sector too rose by 0.9 per cent to 167.9, the MoSPI data showed.

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