BENGALURU: Karnataka, one of the largest and most populous states in India, is gearing up for a crucial assembly election on May 10, 2023. The election will decide the fate of the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai and the main opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party led by state president DK Shivakumar and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. The Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) party led by former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy is also in the fray, hoping to play a kingmaker role in case of a hung assembly.

The election is expected to be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress, with both parties trying to woo the dominant Lingayat community, which constitutes about 18% of the state’s population and has traditionally supported the BJP. The BJP is also banking on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his development agenda, while the Congress is highlighting the failures of the BJP government on various fronts such as handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, farmers’ issues, unemployment, corruption and law and order. The JD(S) is focusing on its stronghold regions of Old Mysore and Hassan, where it has a loyal base among the Vokkaliga community, which forms about 12% of the state’s population.

The election is also significant as it will be the first one after the collapse of the Congress-JD(S) coalition government in July 2019, which paved the way for the BJP to come to power with the support of rebel MLAs from both parties. The BJP had to face several challenges since then, such as managing internal dissent, dealing with floods and droughts, coping with the COVID-19 crisis and facing allegations of phone tapping and voter data collection. The BJP also had to change its chief minister in July 2021, when BS Yediyurappa resigned due to pressure from the central leadership and was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai.

The election will also test the impact of several defections that took place before the polls. Some prominent leaders who quit the BJP and joined the Congress include former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, former Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi, former ministers MP Kumaraswamy and R Shankar and MLC Puttanna. The Congress hopes that these leaders will help it gain ground among the Lingayat voters and dent the BJP’s prospects. On the other hand, some leaders who left the Congress and joined the BJP include former ministers Ramesh Jarkiholi, Anand Singh and BC Patil and MLAs K Sudhakar and MTB Nagaraj. The BJP hopes that these leaders will help it consolidate its base among other communities and regions.

The election will also witness a high-decibel campaign by both national and state leaders of all parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address several rallies across the state and highlight his government’s achievements and schemes. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is also expected to campaign extensively and target the BJP on various issues. JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy is also likely to address rallies and appeal to his supporters to vote for his party.

The election will be held in a single phase on May 10, 2023, with a total of 5.21 crore voters eligible to cast their votes for 224 assembly seats. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 13, 2023. The election will be conducted under strict COVID-19 protocols and guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI), which has also imposed a model code of conduct in the state.

The election will be keenly watched by political observers and analysts as it will have implications for both national and state politics. The outcome of the election will also indicate the mood of the voters ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.