NEW DELHI: Following a series of monthly heat records on July 21, 2024, the Earth experienced its hottest day in 84 years since at least 1940, surpassing the previous record of 17.08 degrees Celsius set on July 6, 2023, according to preliminary data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

As per C3S the global average temperature reached a record high of 17.09 degrees Celsius. This surpassed the previous record set on July 6, 2023, by 0.01 degrees Celsius. The significant temperature difference over the last 13 months highlights the impact of climate change, and we can expect more records to be broken in the future as the climate continues to warm. A notable observation is the significant difference in temperatures since July 2023 compared to all previous years.

Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S, remarked that the difference between recent temperatures and previous records is staggering, he said, "We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate continues to warm, we are bound to see new records in the coming months and years."

Before July 2023, the Earth's highest daily average temperature was recorded in August 2016 at 16.8 degrees Celsius. However, since July 3, 2023, there have been 57 days where temperatures exceeded that previous record.

Analysis reveals that 2023 and 2024 have experienced significantly higher annual maximum daily global temperatures than previous years. The 10 years with the highest daily average temperatures range from 2015 to 2024.

The global average temperature typically peaks between late June and early August, driven by the northern hemisphere's summer. Northern hemisphere land masses warm up faster than the southern hemisphere's oceans can cool down. With global average temperatures already near record levels, a new daily average temperature record was not completely unexpected.

C3S scientists attributed the sudden rise in daily global temperatures to much higher-than-average temperatures over large parts of Antarctica. Such large anomalies are not uncommon during the Antarctic winter and also contributed to record global temperatures in early July 2023. Antarctic Sea ice extent is nearly as low as last year, leading to above-average temperatures over parts of the Southern Ocean.

As the global average temperature typically peaks between late June and early August, scientists expect it to rise and peak around July 22 or 23, 2024, before decreasing. The European Climate Agency noted that whether 2024 will be the warmest year ever depends largely on the development and intensity of La Niña.

While 2024 has been warm enough to surpass 2023, the exceptional warmth of the last four months of 2023 makes it too early to predict with certainty which year will be warmer. Climate science non-profit Berkeley Earth estimated last week that 2024 has a 92% chance of setting a new annual heat record. There is a 99% chance that 2024 will have an annual average temperature anomaly of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average, it said. 

At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period average to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period. 

The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.2 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. This warming is believed to be the reason behind record droughts, wildfires, and floods worldwide.